Passenger demand level projected to contract 4.7% year-on-year in 2020 due to coronavirus outbreak, according to IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast $29.3 billion revenue loss for global aviation sector in 2020 due to the new coronavirus outbreak.
The revenue loss represents a 4.7% hit to global demand, the IATA said in a statement on late Thursday.
IATA CEO Alexandre de Juniac stressed the reduction in global air traffic of 4.7%, the first overall decline in demand since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue, Juniac noted.
The carriers in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to see $27.8 billion revenue loss.
Of this figure, China’s domestic market is predicted to see $12.8 billion.
Passenger demand in the region is projected to drop 13% this year compared to 2019.
“Considering that growth for the region’s airlines was forecast to be 4.8%, the net impact will be an 8.2% full-year contraction compared to 2019 demand levels,” it said.
Assuming the loss of demand is limited to markets linked to China, carriers outside Asia-Pacific are forecast to bear a revenue loss of $1.5 billion.
These estimates are based on a scenario where coronavirus has a similar V-shaped impact on demand as was experienced during an epidemic of SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, which terrified the globe in 2003 and infected more than 8000 people, killing more than 750.